Inquiry Into Covid-19’s Origins Splits U.S. and China

谭德赛和福奇的反水,并不是偶然。

“Nothing can happen unless China says yes,” said Lawrence Gostin, faculty director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University. “The WHO has no power under international law to require China to comply. “

He added, “Given the relationship between China and the U.S., there’s a negligible chance that the Chinese would capitulate to U.S. requests for a full and independent investigation.”

Complicating matters, leading public health officials—including WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus —have called for a thorough investigation into whether the pandemic could have begun with a lab accident.

Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical officer, was asked in a May 11 Senate hearing whether the Covid-19 virus could have escaped from a lab in Wuhan—home to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which conducted extensive research on bat-borne coronaviruses. He responded, “that possibility certainly exists and I am totally in favor of a full investigation of whether that could have happened.”

China strongly contests that such a lab accident is a plausible explanation for the pandemic. Beijing’s Foreign Ministry and embassy in Geneva couldn’t be reached for comment.

China has said it fully cooperated with a WHO-led team that spent four weeks in Wuhan, visited the virology institute, and concluded that a lab accident was “extremely unlikely.” Beijing has now asked that the WHO-led team pursue evidence that the virus may have been circulating elsewhere before the first confirmed cases in Wuhan in early December 2019.

Scientists widely agree that there isn’t strong enough evidence for the lab hypothesis, or for the main alternative: that the virus spread from animals to humans outside a lab.

Source: Inquiry Into Covid-19’s Origins Splits U.S. and China – WSJ

新冠病毒是否从武汉实验室泄漏?一座废弃中国铜矿成关注焦点

华尔街日报这篇长文章,大概只有闫丽梦论文的十分之一水平。

这篇解释了为什么墨江矿洞的病毒不可能是SARS-Covid-2的起源。

昆明医科大学第一临床学院联系了其他几家机构的专家,包括武汉病毒研究所。没有人能确定导致矿工生病的原因。

到2012年8月中旬时,其中三名矿工已经死亡。根据Li的论文,怀疑这是一种由蝙蝠传播的类似SARS的冠状病毒。当时中国科学家仍在寻找SARS的起源,他们知道该地区的蝙蝠洞是一个潜在来源,一直在从蝙蝠洞中收集样本。

根据他们后来发表的一篇研究论文,在接下来大约一年的时间里,武汉病毒研究所的科学家们进入墨江矿区,从276只蝙蝠身上采集了粪便样本,确定了六个不同的种类。

他们从这些样本中提取了基因物质,并对片段进行了测序。据科学家们称,一半样本的冠状病毒检测呈阳性,包括一种类似SARS的不明病毒株。他们把这种病毒称为RaBtCoV/4991。

关键的一点是,研究人员发现,所有六种蝙蝠都显示出冠状病毒双重感染的证据。换句话说,这种病毒可以很容易地与类似的病毒交换遗传物质,从而创造一种新的冠状病毒,也就是说产生可能感染人类的新病毒的环境已经成熟。

这项研究是由武汉病毒研究所蝙蝠冠状病毒专家石正丽领导的。研究结果于2016年发表在期刊Virologica Sinica(即《中国病毒学》英文版)上,当时RaBtCoV/4991并没有引起多少科学家的关注。这种病毒似乎与SARS没有密切关系。该论文说,该病毒来自一座废弃矿井,但没有提到那里的患病矿工。

新冠疫情暴发之后,该病毒才引发了更多关注。2020年2月,石正丽和她的同事在科学杂志《自然》(Nature)上发表了一篇论文,揭示了一种名为RaTG13的病毒的存在。基因测序显示它与新冠病毒SARS-CoV-2的相似度为96.2%,成为已知的、与新冠病毒最接近的毒株。

他们称这一病毒是在云南一只蝙蝠身上发现的,但没有透露发现病毒的时间和具体地点。而墨江矿区就位于云南省。

这一发现被视为新冠病毒溯源方面的一个突破,是表明新冠病毒来自蝙蝠的强有力证据。

惊人的相似

然而,在接下来的几周里,中国以外的一些科学家注意到,这个名为RaTG13的病毒与石正丽团队在上述墨江矿山发现的名为RaBtCoV/4991的病毒,在采样日期和部分基因序列方面有惊人相似之处。

科学家们一再要求澄清这个问题后,石正丽表示,这两个病毒是同一种。去年11月份她在《自然》(Nature)杂志上更新了自己的论文,以反映这一点,而且包含了患病矿工的详细情况。

石正丽表示,该病毒被重新命名,以反映蝙蝠的种类、发现的位置和采样年份。

Source: 新冠病毒是否从武汉实验室泄漏?一座废弃中国铜矿成关注焦点 – 华尔街日报

美国一份武汉病毒所研究人员患病情报加剧病毒溯源讨论

病毒所有人患病的说法由来已久,但之前一直没有提供对应的证据。
现在终于解密情报了?

根据一份先前未披露的美国情报报告,中国武汉病毒研究所的三名研究人员在2019年11月出现严重病情并去医院寻求医治。这份报告可能助长越来越多要求更全面调查新冠病毒是否从实验室泄漏的呼声。

报告的细节超出了特朗普政府任职最后几天发布的国务院简报,简报称,该实验室有几名研究人员在2019年秋季患病,“症状与新冠病毒感染和普通季节性疾病一致”。该实验室是研究冠状病毒和其他病原体的中心。

这份报告对患病研究人员人数、患病时间以及他们到医院就诊情况的披露,正值世界卫生组织(WHO)决策机构召开一次会议的前夕,预计该机构将在这次会议上讨论新冠病毒溯源调查的下一阶段安排。

熟悉该实验室研究人员相关情报的现任和前任官员,对这一评估支持性证据的确凿程度表达了不同看法。其中一人说,这是由一个国际合作伙伴提供的,可能具有重要意义,但仍需要进一步调查和证实。

另一位官员赋予了这份情报更高的可信度。他表示:“我们从各种不同途径获得了这些情报,情报信息很可靠,非常准确。情报没有说的是他们(上述研究人员)究竟为什么会生病。”

许多流行病学家和病毒学家认为导致这次疫情的新冠病毒正是在2019年11月份前后开始在中国中部城市武汉扩散的,据中国官方消息,武汉首例确诊病例是一名在2019年12月8日患病的男子。

Source: 美国一份武汉病毒所研究人员患病情报加剧病毒溯源讨论 – 华尔街日报

科学家呼吁对新冠起源进行更深入调查

签名人之一Ralph S. Baric是石正丽去武汉病毒所之前在美国的合作者。这篇公开信正好发表于福奇在参议院的听证会之后,不是巧合。

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0016

知名科学家呼吁对新冠起源进行更深入的调查,包括实验室事故泄露了导致这场大流行的新冠病毒的可能性。

在《科学》(Science)期刊周四发表的一封信中,一个由18位生物学家、免疫学家和其他科学家组成的国际小组批评了由世界卫生组织(WHO)领导的新冠疫情溯源调查小组3月份发布的一份报告的结论,并呼吁对两个主要假设进行更广泛的评估:一个是假设新冠病毒从实验室外泄后进入人群并开始传播,另外一个假设是从受感染动物传染人类并且开始传播。

由WHO领导的研究小组包括来自中国和其他几个国家的科学家,他们报告说没有确切证据能证明这两种假设的任一种。然而科学家们在信中写道,尽管如此该研究小组还是断定,疫情起源于动物是更有可能的情况,并且在这份长达313页的报告中,仅用了四页来讨论疫情源于实验室事故的可能性。

科学家们在信中写道:“在我们获得足够的数据之前,我们必须同等认真对待有关病毒来自自然和实验室外泄的假设。”

Source: 科学家呼吁对新冠起源进行更深入调查 – 华尔街日报

The Wuhan Whitewash

WSJ的社论把脸扇得啪啪响。

Yet enough already is known about the WIV to suggest this lacks credibility. In 2018 U.S. officials warned in diplomatic cables about safety and management issues at the WIV that could lead to a pandemic. This is especially troubling because the WIV conducted “gain of function” research on coronaviruses that theoretically can enable them to infect a new species.

The U.S. State Department warned in a January fact sheet that WIV researchers had developed “symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illnesses” in autumn 2019. The WHO report nonetheless takes the Chinese government at its word when it says there was “no reporting of COVID-19 compatible respiratory illness during the weeks/months prior to December 2019.”

Shi Zhengli of the WIV said last week that the lab has no ties to the Chinese military. But the State Department said in January that “the WIV has collaborated on publications and secret projects with China’s military” for years. The U.S. claims were based on extensive intelligence, and the Biden Administration hasn’t disputed the findings. Did the WHO team even examine U.S. evidence?

The WHO’s tissue-thin analysis isn’t surprising. Chinese government scientists provided most of the data and worked with the international team to craft the report. Beijing has limited independent access to information on Covid-19’s origin, much as it silenced scientists and journalists who raised doubts about the official story last year. The report’s publication was repeatedly delayed, as both sides negotiated a report that is more political than scientific.

The WHO team is also compromised by conflicts of interest. Zoologist Peter Daszak, the American on the team, has collaborated with the WIV for years and supported gain-of-function research. As early as February 2020 he helped coordinate a statement in the Lancet condemning “conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.” Another team member, virologist Marion Koopmans, oversees an outfit in the Netherlands that has conducted gain-of-function research and could face serious repercussions if the pandemic started in a lab.

The Biden Administration hasn’t taken a definitive position on the lab-leak theory, but Covid-19 spokesman Anthony Fauci played down the idea last week. Dr. Fauci’s institute financed work at the WIV and has backed gain-of-function research. He’s the wrong man to reassure the public about lab research on coronaviruses.

Dr. Fauci was trying to rebut Robert Redfield, the former chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who said last week that “I still think the most likely etiology of this pathogen in Wuhan was from a laboratory.” Dr. Redfield added that virus transfer to a lab worker is not unusual in such research.

Source: The Wuhan Whitewash – WSJ

美国呼吁建立健全机制进行新冠溯源调查

谭书记发现了之前收的支票是空头支票吗?

美国和其他十多个国家对世界卫生组织(World Health organization, 简称WHO)牵头的中国新冠溯源调查提出担忧,称调查进行得太迟,未充分或及时获得相关数据。

这份得到了澳大利亚、日本、加拿大、英国和其他国家支持的声明呼吁“在不受干扰和不当影响下进行透明、独立的分析和评估”。

欧盟驻联合国代表团也发表了一项单独的声明,对上述声明做出呼应。这两份声明发布之前,WHO领导的武汉调查团周二发布了调查报告。该报告发现,病毒从中国实验室泄露的可能性极低。武汉是首批新冠病毒确诊病例所在地。

就在该报告即将发布前,WHO总干事谭德塞(Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus)呼吁对新冠病毒是否从一所实验室流出展开更广泛的调查,这是他迄今在公开场合对该问题使用的最强烈措辞。他说,他准备派遣更多的专家调查这一问题。

与此同时,中方在武汉调查报告发布后发表声明警告称,将病毒问题政治化只会阻碍新冠溯源调查,并再次呼吁在其他国家开展类似调查。

Source: 美国呼吁建立健全机制进行新冠溯源调查 – 华尔街日报

WHO新冠溯源最终报告未回答关键问题

一份经过中国政府审查的,主要研究由中方完成的报告,你指望能从里面看到什么?

一个由世界卫生组织(World Health Organization, 简称WHO)牵头的新冠疫情溯源调查小组发现,最近一次走访中国期间查看的数据不足以回答病毒何时、何地以及如何开始传播等关键问题。

这份期待已久的报告介绍了WHO牵头的调查人员今年早些时候完成的对武汉为期四周的调查结果。武汉是2019年12月首批新冠病毒确诊病例所在地。

开展此次中国之行的专家组几乎没有进行彻底和公正调查的权限。面对国际上要求对新冠疫情进行溯源调查的压力,中国最初并不同意。目前这场疫情已经造成280万人死亡。

最终报告已分发给WHO成员国,但尚未公开。《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)周一看到了这份报告。

在这份需要中国当局批准的报告中,WHO团队呼吁对2019年12月以前的中国医院数据和血液样本进行更仔细的审查。这种分析可以提供线索,说明在出现第一例确诊病例之前病毒已经传播了多长时间。

(略)

这份报告的大部分研究是由中国科学家进行的,他们几乎都为中国政府工作。根据此项研究的条款,中方进行了大部分研究,在WHO聘请的国际科学家团队于1月和2月访华期间,这些研究结果被提交给了该团队。

中国外交部和国家卫生健康委员会没有回复记者的置评请求。

Source: WHO新冠溯源最终报告未回答关键问题 – 华尔街日报

WHO Investigators to Scrap Plans for Interim Report on Probe of Covid-19 Origins

WHO迫于压力取消了报告摘要的发布,追寻病毒来源的人越来越多了。

According to an advance copy of the open letter, the group of 26 scientists and other experts in areas including virology, zoology and microbiology said that it was “all but impossible” for the WHO team to conduct a full investigation, and that any report was likely to involve political compromises as it had to be approved by the Chinese side.

A credible investigation required, among other things, confidential interviews and fuller access to hospital records of confirmed and potential Chinese coronavirus cases in late 2019, when the outbreak was first identified in Wuhan, said the letter signed by experts from France, the U.S., India, Australia and other countries.

Investigators should also be allowed to view records including maintenance, personnel, animal breeding and experiment logs from all laboratories working with coronaviruses, the letter said.

“We cannot afford an investigation into the origins of the pandemic that is anything less than absolutely thorough and credible,” the letter said. “Efforts to date do not constitute a thorough, credible, and transparent investigation.”

The appeal is unlikely to gain traction, as any future probes would require Beijing’s cooperation. Moreover, many leading infectious-disease experts are skeptical that a lab accident could plausibly explain the origins of the pandemic.

Still, it expresses what has become a more widely shared dissatisfaction, voiced by the U.S. and U.K. governments and many scientists world-wide, that China has provided too little information and data to the WHO to guide researchers trying to determine where the virus originated and how it jumped to humans.

Source: WHO Investigators to Scrap Plans for Interim Report on Probe of Covid-19 Origins – WSJ